Analyzing and Managing Risky Investments by John M. Campbell

By John M. Campbell

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2. The annual cash flows start negative indicating the expenditure of capital as the project begins. Then the slope becomes positive as revenue starts to come in. NCF's declines as production begins to fall off. The cumulative values show a similar pattern but to a greater extreme. The cumulative NCF is about $144M, as in the pie diagram. 4 Annual and cumulative NCF for a project Detailed steps for deriving the NCF patterns for different tax regimes are outlined in Chapter 3. The intent here is to give professionals new to the investment evaluation process a feel for the basic concepts.

PURPOSES AND PROBLEMS OF INVESTMENT ANALYSIS In order to appreciate the professional judgment required in an investment analysis, the range of uses for investment appraisals must also be understood. Evaluations are used for many reasons, including: 1. Sales and exchange of properties 6. Estate settlements 2. Loans 7. Unitization and joint venture agreements 3. Corporate investment decisions 8. Bid evaluation 4. Exploration and development strategies 9. Evaluating government regulations 5. Accounting and tax planning 10.

While war stories are often boring and time wasting, any lessons learnt may help avoid expensive, career threatening errors in the future. In reviewing the taxonomy, however, please reflect on the operating environment at the time the decision was made. Failing to control for, or understand the motivational system of the organization at the time the decision was made ignores perhaps the most critical element. Dr. caused by organizational factors, such as excessive time pressure or failure to monitor hazard signals.

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